need initial post and two replies asap- Cite bible as well as scholarly sources

INITIAL POST-

Consider the following three scenarios:

1. Suppose you work for an organization that runs tests for life-threatening diseases and then discusses the results with their patients. You have just tested a 45 year old male patient, father of six, and according to the test he is terminally ill. Statistics shows that the man has seven months to live.

2. Your 31 year old daughter, who for five years has been underemployed and unemployed, announces she has secured a stable and high paying job as Director of Operations for a Colorado Marijuana facility.

3. You are working for a foreign government that has had a disease epidemic in a certain region of their country which has led to the deaths of three million children. The disease is spread by mosquitos, and the only quick and sure way to stop the epidemic is to spray Chemical H on the jungle environments where the mosquitos live. Spraying the chemical will lead to environmental issues for 20 years.

Pick one of the above scenarios and in that context, explain how your knowledge of biostatistics might inform how you address the situation and how you might advance a Biblical worldview. Fell free to add details or assumptions left ambiguous in the prompt.

NEED AN EDUCATED RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING- FIRST POST

Suppose you work for an organization that runs tests for life-threatening diseases and then discusses the results with their patients. You have just tested a 45-year-old male patient, father of six, and according to the test he is terminally ill. Statistics shows that the man has seven months to live.

Before I made the transition to the department of radiology, I worked in medical oncology for many years and saw firsthand the impact when a patient receives news that their cancer is terminal, they only have months to live, and the chemotherapy and radiation given is only palliative. Doctors must weigh the benefits and risks to giving chemo to patients whose cancer is incurable and, through research and findings either done by our organization or others, make the decision. Patients will come in and ask the doctor what is the probability that the cancer is curable or not. Doctors turn to biostatistics from the latest studies and trials to assist in planning a patient’s care. The use of biostatistics can help with estimating the severity of a disease as well as survival rates. Also, biostatistics can reveal the chances of remission, survival, best treatment options, and having a cancer-free life after all treatments have been given.

Despite the new “treatment advances have changed the course of cancer and as culture has embraced patient autonomy and self‐determination, physicians now inform their patients of a cancer diagnosis almost all of the time. However, physicians remain reluctant to disclose terminal illness to patients because of the potentially violent impact of such information. Some physicians and patient family members worry that such disclosure will destroy the patient’s hope and discourage the patients from ‘fighting’ the disease” (Kim et al., 2013). If the statistics do not favor remission or any successful treatments, it can be very hard for a patient and his/her family. A couple of times I have seen patients come for second opinions or new patients told that the diagnosis was terminal. However, the bad news did not stop patients from making the best of their life with family or volunteering to participate in a clinical trial. The careful design of these studies will allow for the minimize any cofounding through randomization of the trial subjects, so it is important that the investigators decrease cofounding and measure variables for any potential cofounders (Sullivan, 2018, p.195).

2 Corinthians 1:3-4 tells us when helping the terminally ill “Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Father of mercies and God of all comfort, who comforts us in all our affliction, so that we may be able to comfort those who are in any affliction, with the comfort with which we ourselves are comforted by God.” We are taught that mortal life on this Earth is sacred being made in the image of God and never to take for granted the life we have and thank God for all that we have (Butler, 2018). Furthermore, we are called to love one another and have the understanding that God has total authority over life and death (Butler, 2018). When faced with a terminal illness such as cancer, fear can overtake us and we try to find ways to extend life knowing that death will happen to us all.

When faced with any terminal illness, “too often medical treatment offers not complete recovery, but rather life with new infirmity. We may leave the hospital but remain bed-bound and dependent on others for daily life. We may survive, but never regain consciousness. We may recover from life-threatening illness, but never return home, and never regain the ability to breathe independently, or to speak. We may live, but with pain that distorts life beyond recognition” (Butler, 2018). With the help of biostatistics, doctors can look at treatment options and decide if the plan of care will preserve life, cure the disease, or lessen the suffering for one who is facing the inevitable.

NEED AN EDUCATE RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING- SECOND POST

1. Suppose you work for an organization that runs tests for life-threatening diseases and then discusses the results with their patients. You have just tested a 45 year old male patient, father of six, and according to the test he is terminally ill. Statistics shows that the man has seven months to live.

I have chosen scenario number one for my discussion because this is situation I have never had to encounter. With that, I would like to explore the process my heart and mind would take when doing so.

The information that we have learned about in Chapter 5 about sensitivity and specificity would influence how I address this situation. I would be inclined to validate my finding are true (to the best knowledge I have) that this patient has the disease before telling him this life altering news. What is the Sensitivity and Specificity of the test? More importantly what is the False Positive Fraction? While these are simply alternative ways of expressing the same information (false positive fraction/specificity and false negative fraction/sensitivity) this information will tell us the probability the patient has the disease because he tested positive or the probability he tested positive and does not have the disease. As stated in our text, “Often, sensitivity and the false positive are reported for the test.” This being the case, this information should be at access for me to address and possibly even discuss this quantity of error with the patient. In addition, are there any additional tests that may validate my finding or disprove them? While this is heart breaking scenario sometimes the tests are correct. However, this is news I would want to do everything in my power to not deliver, if it was untrue. Before telling the patient, attempts to extinguish the possible doubt that it could have been an error due to the testing. If accurate and true, I would discuss how I came to my finding to the patient. Biostatistics, while complicated, can be explained in a fashion that can aid in the patient’s process of their condition. Seeing the results and physical proof of the situation may bring definiteness to the disease. Finally, I would want to instill hope and comfort in the patient.

At times like these patients can feel angry and lost after hearing this type of news. As a messenger of God, I would make myself available to patient. Prayer with and for the family and patient is instrument I can use to bring peace for them in this time. I can suggest resources to pastoral aid and groups. In addition, I would share a scripture that is close to my heart. Psalm 23:4 “Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me.” This scripture has brought me peace in my darkest of times. It reminds us that no matter what we are going through God is beside us.